“Calexit” Drive Clears Initial Hurdle: California Could Vote on Secession in 2028

AENN

December 3, 2025

An initiative cleared for signature gathering would ask Californians whether the Golden State should attempt to become a separate nation.

A newly cleared ballot measure in California that would ask voters whether the state should become an independent country comes at a time of significant fiscal stress for the state government.

READ THE INITIATIVE

Governor Gavin Newsom and the Legislature acknowledge that the state faces a general-fund shortfall of about $20 billion for the 2025-26 fiscal year, a number that reflects actual revenues of $208.6 billion against projected spending of $228.4 billion.

Much of that structural deficit stems from rising costs in health care and social services.

For example, the Medi‑Cal program has required special borrowing: California has borrowed $3.4 billion from its general fund to cover Medi-Cal overruns and faces a broader gap of at least $6.2 billion in its Medicaid program due to expanded coverage and rising costs. 

For conservatives, the intersection of a secession effort and a state government running persistent deficits raises key questions: If California were to become independent in name only, what fiscal obligations to the U.S. federal government, to retained federal obligations, and to state-run unfunded liabilities, would carry forward? 

The initiative text indicates that the vote would create a commission to study viability, but would not automatically change California’s relationship with the United States.

That means California would still need to manage its unfunded liabilities (which include about $85 billion for retiree health-care commitments) and its heavy reliance on federal funds, while shouldering new international obligations if independence were pursued.

Cal-exit from the union faces significant constitutional obstacles. The U.S. Supreme Court in Texas v. White held that states cannot unilaterally secede, and the U.S. Constitution contains no process for a single state to leave the union without the consent of Congress and other states.

While the independent-country question may energize some voters, the underlying fiscal reality—a state running a multibillion‐dollar structural gap, depending on federal monies for essential programs, and carrying massive unfunded liabilities—means secession is not just a symbolic gesture but a potential economic gamble.