Becerra holds strong lead over Hilton in race for California governor, new poll shows

By Nicole Nixon

Staff Writer Contact

Aug. 13, 2026 3 AM PT

• Democrat Xavier Becerra holds a commanding 55% to 37% lead over Republican Steve Hilton in a new Berkeley IGS/Los Angeles Times poll ahead of November’s election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.

• Support breaks sharply along party lines, with progressives and no-party-preference voters driving Becerra’s advantage.

• Majorities in Los Angeles and San Diego counties, the Bay Area and the Central Coast back Becerra, while Hilton leads in conservative inland regions, highlighting California’s deep urban-rural and economic divides.

SACRAMENTO — As the campaign for California governor heads into the general election, Democrat Xavier Becerra maintains a strong lead over Republican Steve Hilton, according to a new poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.

Buoyed by the state’s liberal voting base, Becerra had support from 55% of likely voters surveyed — compared with Hilton’s 37%. The remaining 7% were undecided.

Like in a previous IGS poll conducted in late May, support for each candidate falls overwhelmingly along partisan lines: 88% of Democrats prefer Becerra and 91% of Republicans plan to back Hilton. No-party-preference voters also lean heavily toward Becerra, a former Biden administration Cabinet member, 58% to Hilton’s 30%.

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Becerra maintains majority support from California likely voters

Percentage of likely voters’ preference for state governor by group

Among California likely voters in the November elections, the majority favor Becerra for governor.

A Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll conducted online Aug. 3-9 surveyed 2,310 registered California likely voters. Responses have a sampling error of about +/- 2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Institute of Governmental Studies

Lorena Iñiguez ElebeeLOS ANGELES TIMES

The two will face off in the Nov. 3 general election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from running again and considering a 2028 bid for president. Becerra, whose resume includes stints as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary and state attorney general, is heavily favored to win the seat over Hilton, a former Fox News host who advised a prime minister in his native Britain.

“After the unsettled and chaotic primary, this is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and IGS co-director. “Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race.”

According to the poll, majorities of voters across age, gender and racial categories prefer Becerra — with particularly strong support among women, younger voters and Black Californians.