By gilbertdoctorow Uncategorized April 9, 2022

The Russian operation to take the port city of Mariupol is drawing to a successful conclusion. “Success” has to be understood today in a qualified sense, since large parts of the city now lie in ruins and as many as 4,000 civilians may have been killed in the fighting, largely victims of trigger happy Ukrainian ultra-nationalists. The Azov battalion soldiers and other irregulars holding the city from fortified positions in residential communities of this city of 460,000 shot wantonly at those who tried to escape from the basements of apartment houses to fetch water or who dared attempt to join the humanitarian corridors and exit the city. The civilian population was held hostage and constituted a “human shield.” They protected the Ukrainian forces from the full fury of Russian artillery and precision air strikes, which otherwise would have been deployed.

All of the fighting over Mariupol has gotten very little coverage in the Western media. All that we heard about was the difficulty in establishing humanitarian corridors and interviews with the few terrorized civilians who managed to get out to the West. To be fair, the situation on the ground in Mariupol has been reported only partially by the Russians because it has been very much a work in progress that they kept under rules of secrecy in line with their entire ‘special military operation.’

Now that the capture of Mariupol is in its final phase, some information of value has been published in alternative Russian media and I propose to present that here to give readers a sense of how this war is being prosecuted and why. Main source: https://www.9111.ru/questions/7777777771838727/

In effect, most of the city proper has been taken by the Russian army and Donetsk militias, with significant assistance from a battalion of Chechens headed by their leader Kadyrov. As the routes out of the city heading east were freed and as the snipers and other Azov forces were pushed back to provide some level of safety in the streets, large numbers of civilians have left the city in the past week. It is estimated that the civilian population remaining in Mariupol at present is about one third what it was at the start of the conflict.

The Azov fighters, other irregulars and Ukrainian army forces numbered about 4,000 at the start and now have been reduced due to casualties. They include among them “foreign mercenaries” as the Russians have said for some time. Now from intercepted phone conversations of these belligerents, it appears that among the foreigners are NATO instructors. This means that the proxy war between Russia and the USA/NATO begins to approximate a direct confrontation, contradicting the public pronouncements coming from the Biden administration. Should the Russians succeed in taking these NATO instructors alive, which is one of their priority tasks, the next sessions of the UN Security Council could be very tense.

To be sure, the 4,000 enemy forces mentioned above were only those within the city. Ukrainian forces numbering perhaps ten times more were positioned to the west of the city at the start of hostilities. Presumably they have been pushed back to the West.

As we have known for a week or so, the remaining Azov and other Ukrainian forces have retreated from the city proper to two locations on the outskirts of Mariupol: the port and the Azovstal industrial territory. The Russians have now entirely encircled both.

The port runs for about 3 kilometers along the sea and reaches inland about 300 meters. It is from here that in the past week, the Azov group tried to send out by helicopter a dozen or more of its top officers. The helicopter was shot down by the Russians, killing all aboard. A relief helicopter also was destroyed by the Russians, but here one Ukrainian survived and he was interrogated about the failed operation.

The port is now being cleared of enemy forces, with the Donbas militia taking the lead.

The Azovstal industrial complex is a much tougher nut to crack. It consists of two steel works. Their specific feature is underground levels going down as much as six to eight stories, where the enemy has to be flushed out by siege methods not by artillery barrage or bombing. As many as 3,000 nationalists and Ukrainian army soldiers may be there. The main task for the Russians is to watch all entrances and exits to the underground.

The Russians are not bombing for two reasons:

First, there is no sense in destroying the infrastructure above the ground level if the enemy is holed up below. Moreover, there are some residential buildings in the vicinity.

Second, if you bomb and bury the nationalists underground, then there will be no witnesses to bring to court to talk about the atrocities which these people have committed in the Donbas. And there may well be in these underground bunkers still more biological laboratories which were till now very carefully kept out of view. The Russians want to get their hands on proof.

Whatever the level of destruction may be, the pending Russian victory over Ukrainian forces in Mariupol is anything but Pyrrhic. It is a full-blooded victory with great strategic importance insofar as it gives the Russians full control of the Azov Sea littoral. It seals the land bridge connecting the Russian Federation mainland with Crimea. It also is a key piece in ensuring water supplies to Crimea, which had been cut off by Ukraine in order to inflict maximum pain on Russian Crimea. With water now flowing once again from the Dnieper, there is a solid basis for resuming farming on Crimea in its traditional levels and also to support tourist inflows, a key source of income for the region. Add to that the likelihood that with some time and investment, Mariupol will reassume its important economic role as seaport and industrial town.

Ukraine Update #10

April 11, 2022 |

Ukraine Update #10

Paul Craig Roberts

No useful information about Ukraine can be obtained from Western media. The Russian military operates without the need of news releases, so little information is provided.

Last week Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said, “Of course they [Ukraine] can win this. The proof is literally in the outcomes that you’re seeing everyday.” Kirby must get his information from CNN. I don’t know of any battles the Ukrainians have won. I don’t know of any Ukrainian forces that are not surrounded and trapped, cut off from supplies. There are no offensive actions being conducted by Ukrainian military or Azov militia. Ukrainian military infrastructure and command and control systems have been destroyed. When the West delivers weapons, the weapons are destroyed on arrival as was the S-300 air defense system from Slovakia.

The Kremlin appointed a new commander of the operation, and the change in command has been presented by the Western media as an attempt to free Russian forces from a stalemate.
As there is no stalemate, the commander might have been replaced because of objection to the restricted use of Russian heavy weapons, which have mainly been restricted to the destruction of the Ukrainian military infrastructure. The Kremlin’s strategy means casualties among Russian troops who have to clear the surrounded areas in street fighting. Most generals don’t like this use of troops when heavy weapons can eliminate the opposing force.

It is necessary to understand that there has been no Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian troops are operating only in eastern and southern Ukraine. The troops served the purpose of preventing a large Ukrainian army, now encircled and trapped, from conquering the two Donbass Russian republics recently recognized by Russia after an eight-year delay. The other task assigned to the Russian troops is to exterminate the neo-Nazi Azov militia that has committed atrocities against the Donbass Russians. The process has gone slowly, because the fighting is mainly in Donbass, which is populated by Russians, and the Kremlin wants to rescue the people, not kill them.

The mistakes the Kremlin made were eight years ago and in the eight years since. The Kremlin, focused on the Sochi Olympics, did not intervene and prevent Washington’s overthrow of the Ukrainian government. The Kremlin failed to pre-empt the crisis in Donbass when the Kremlin refused the Donbass appeal to be reincorporated in Russia like Crimea. The Kremlin, stupidly relying on negotiation with the West to enforce the Minsk Agreement to stop Ukraine’s attacks on Donbass, permitted eight years of Azov attacks on Donbass and erosion of Donbass territory, while Washington equipped and trained a Ukrainian army. In other words, the Kremlin had learned nothing from the Washington-organized attack on South Ossetia by Georgia in 2008.

Russia would rather the conflict end without having to destroy the trapped Ukrainian army and for this reason keeps negotiating with Washington’s puppet Zelensky who has no authority to agree to anything. As it is not usual for the victor to pursue negotiations, the Kremlin’s proclivity for negotiation makes Russian arms look weak, and this encourages the West to keep the conflict going.

I think the limited nature of the Russian intervention was a mistake. Nevertheless, if Russia can’t achieve its goal in the limited way chosen, the option remains for a wider attack.

I believe the main problem for Russia is that the government tries to be Goody Two Shoes in its dealings with Satan. I see the Kremlin has now backed off its plan to nationalize Western businesses, because it wants to show that Russia, unlike the West, respects private property. And despite Germany’s hostile actions against Russia, the Kremlin is still supplying Germany with energy in order to demonstrate, again, that Russia, unlike the West, adheres to contractual obligations. It is this kind of stupidity that can defeat Russia. The West doesn’t respond by saying, “Look how reliable the Russians are.” Instead it says, “Look how stupid the Russians are. We are doing everything possible to frustrate them in Ukraine, and in Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden, and are putting more troops and bases on their border, and they sell us the energy with which to do it.”

Perhaps the Kremlin is betting that the EU’s attempt to ban Russian energy from Europe, which has met strong opposition from European countries, will end with NATO’s breakup, but Russia itself could break up NATO and the EU by turning off the energy. Apparently, this sensible step is blocked by the Russian central bank chief, who advises the Kremlin that Russia has to have export earnings from the West, thus effectively blocking Russian counter-sanctions and contributing to the success of the sanctions against Russia. A government that cannot get its act together can lose the benefit of its military superiority.

Meanwhile Stoltenberg continues to issue meaningless NATO threats. The British press reports that:

“NATO is drawing up plans to deploy a permanent full-scale military force on its border in an effort to combat future Russian aggression following the invasion of Ukraine, the alliance’s secretary general has revealed.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/09/exclusive-full-scale-nato-military-force-defend-borders/

According to the report, “a full scale military force” consists of “eight multinational NATO battlegroups all along the eastern flank, from the Baltic to the Black Sea.” https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-plans-massive-military-buildup-russias-border-citing-major-reset A battlegroup consists of 1,000-1,500 soldiers, so Stoltenberg thinks a NATO tower of babel force of 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers scattered over thousands of miles from the Baltic to the Black Sea suffices to stop a Russian invasion! What kind of world does Stoltenberg live in?

Russia has no need or intent to invade Poland, Romania, the Baltics, Finland, Sweden. Missile bases in these countries can be eliminated with precision weapons from a great distance. Russia sent troops into Ukraine in order to liberate Donbass from Azov attack and occupation and to prevent the invasion of Donbass by a 100,000 Ukrainian army.

If Russia had acted sensibly eight years ago, the current intervention would not have been necessary. One wonders what new mistakes the Kremlin will make that will necessitate further interventions in the future.