UC Joke: California exodus is just a myth, massive UC research project finds
UC System comes up with another big lie…In the hands of Newsom
Michelle Robertson, SFGATE
Despite the popular belief that residents are fleeing California, there is not in fact a statewide exodus, new research out of the University of California finds.
The results of the project contradict many of the myths surrounding California and its population.
For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at “unusual rates.” Similarly, the research found no evidence of “millionaire flight” from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle.
The report did reveal net migration out of San Francisco during the pandemic. However, about two-thirds of people who left the city remained in the Bay Area, while 80% stayed in California, which is consistent with earlier trends.
The multi-campus research project, with studies by scholars at UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC San Diego, Cornell University and Stanford University, was released Wednesday. The research draws on sources including public opinion data, the U.S. Census, consumer credit histories, home ownership rates, venture capital investments and information from the Franchise Tax Board.
A recent survey by UC San Diego, included in the project, found that the percentage of Californians who plan to leave the state has remained static for two years. In fact, only 23% of California voters said they were seriously considering leaving the state, which is lower than the 24% who said the same in a 2019 survey conducted by UC Berkeley.
The survey also found that, by a two-to-one margin, Californians still believe in the “California Dream.” Belief in that factor changes based on demographics, economic status and partisan affiliation. For example, white middle-class Californians, white respondents, older people and Republicans were more pessimistic than Spanish speakers, Latinos, African Americans, Asian Americans and younger Californians.
Even along partisan lines, there was just a small gap between the percentage of Democrats (21%) and Republicans (30%) who were seriously considering leaving.
The myth of “millionaire flight” from California, the project also found, is just that — a myth.
Affluent Californians were actually more satisfied with the direction the state is going and very likely to believe it will be better when their children grow up. Likewise, an analysis of almost two decades of Franchise Tax Board data by Stanford University and Cornell University found that there has been no millionaire flight from California, despite recent tax increases levied on higher earners.
“From housing affordability to post-pandemic recovery, California is faced with solving a daunting number of existential challenges. To help inform those important public discussions, UC assembled many of the state’s top researchers to provide a data-driven understanding of California’s population trends,” said UC Regent John A. Pérez in a press release.
“Sliced and diced by geography, race, income and other demographic factors, our efforts have produced a clearer picture of who perceives California as the Golden State versus a failed state,” he continued. “The empirical data will be, at once, disappointing to those who want to write California’s obituary, as well as a call to action for policymakers to address the challenges that have caused some to lose faith in the California Dream.”More Local
