The deadly airborne plague spreading rapidly across Madagascar is now at ‘crisis’ point as cases have rocketed by 37 per cent in just five days, official figures reveal.
The outbreak, the ‘worst in 50 years’, is being fueled by a strain more lethal than the one which usually strikes the country off the coast of Africa.
The World Health Organization (WHO) now states there are 1,801 suspected cases – significantly higher than the 1,309 it reported last Thursday.
Academics have revealed such a jump in cases over the period of five days is concerning and have predicted it could get worse. The most recent statistics show there have been 127 deaths.
Professor Robin May, an infectious diseases expert at Birmingham University, told MailOnline that ‘whichever way you look’ at the outbreak, it’s ‘concerning definitely’.
Analysis of figures by MailOnline show the epidemic could strike a further 20,000 people in just a matter of weeks, if current trends continue. It could be made worse by crowds gathering for an annual celebration to honour the dead earlier this week.
The ‘truly unprecedented’ outbreak has prompted warnings in nine nearby countries – South Africa, Seychelles, La Reunion, Mozambique, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, Comoros and Mauritius.
Two thirds of this year’s cases have been caused by the airborne pneumonic plague and means it is spread through coughing, sneezing or spitting. It is different to the traditional bubonic form that strikes the country each year.
Speaking exclusively to MailOnline, Professor Johnjoe McFadden, an expert in molecular genetics at the University of Surrey, said: ‘It’s a crisis at the moment and we don’t know how bad it’s going to get.’
Professor Jimmy Whitworth, an international public health scientist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told MailOnline earlier today: ‘This outbreak though is the worst for 50 years or more.’
Figures show that at least 1,300 cases of the plague have been reported so far in this year’s outbreak, with 93 official deaths recorded. However, UN estimates state the toll could be in excess of 120
Officials in Madagascar have warned residents not to exhume bodies of dead loved ones and dance with them because the bizarre ritual can cause outbreaks of plague
Plague season hits Madagascar each year and still has six months to run, however, this year’s outbreak has seen triple the amount of cases that was expected.
This year’s outbreak has started earlier as forest fires have driven rats into rural communities, which has then spread into cities for the first time, local reports state.
BUBONIC PLAGUE: WIPED OUT A THIRD OF EUROPE IN THE 14TH CENTURY
Bubonic plague is one of the most devastating diseases in history, having killed around 100million people during the ‘Black Death’ in the 14th century.
Drawings and paintings from the outbreak, which wiped out about a third of the European population, depict town criers saying ‘bring out your dead’ while dragging trailers piled with infected corpses.
It is caused by a bacterium known as Yersinia pestis, which uses the flea as a host and is usually transmitted to humans via rats.
The disease causes grotesque symptoms such as gangrene and the appearance of large swellings on the groin, armpits or neck, known as ‘buboes’.
It kills up to two thirds of sufferers within just four days if it is not treated, although if antibiotics are administered within 24 hours of infection patients are highly likely to survive.
After the Black Death arrived in 1347 plague became a common phenomenon in Europe, with outbreaks recurring regularly until the 18th century.
Bubonic plague has almost completely vanished from the rich world, with 90 per cent of all cases now found in Africa.
However, there have been a few non-fatal cases in the U.S. in recent years, while in August 2013 a 15-year-old boy died in Kyrgyzstan after eating a groundhog infected with the disease.
Three months later, an outbreak in a Madagascan killed at least 20 people in a week.
A year before 60 people died as a result of the infection, more than in any other country in the world.
Outbreaks in China have been rare in recent years, and most have happened in remote rural areas of the west.
China’s state broadcaster said there were 12 diagnosed cases and three deaths in the province of Qinghai in 2009, and one in Sichuan in 2012.
In the United States between five and 15 people die every year as a result, mostly in western states.
HOW DID THIS YEAR’S OUTBREAK BEGIN?
Health officials are unsure how this year’s outbreak began.
However, some believe it could be caused by the bubonic plague, which is endemic in the remote highlands of Madagascar.
If left untreated, it can lead to the pneumonic form, which is responsible for two thirds of the cases recorded so far in this year’s outbreak.
Rats carry the Yersinia pestis bacteria that causes the plague, which is then passed onto their fleas.
Forest fires drive rats towards rural communities, which means residents are at risk of being bitten and infected. Local media reports suggest there has been an increase in the number of blazes in the woodlands.
Without antibiotics, the bubonic strain can spread to the lungs – where it becomes the more virulent pneumonic form.
Pneumonic, which can kill within 24 hours, can then be passed on through coughing, sneezing or spitting.
However, it can also be treated with antibiotics if caught in time.
Madagascar sees regular outbreaks of plague, which tend to start in September, with around 600 cases being reported each year on the island.
However, this year’s outbreak has seen it reach the Indian Ocean island’s two biggest cities, Antananarivo and Toamasina.
Experts warn the disease spreads quicker in heavily populated areas.
